The 48-team format of the 2026 World Cup has produced 104 matches — and has brought together in Dallas exactly the pair that most analysts had pencilled in before the group stage even began. Tonight at 22:00 Kyiv time, France face Spain in the first semi-final. The winner will advance to the final on 19 July at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Tomorrow at 22:00 comes the second semi-final: England vs Argentina in Atlanta.
How the 48-Team FIFA World Cup 2026 Format Shaped This Semi-Final
The 2026 World Cup is the first ever to feature 48 teams. The tournament began with 12 groups of four: the top two from each group advanced to the knockout rounds, along with the eight best third-placed sides — giving 32 teams in the Round of 32. It was this expanded format that allowed teams like Paraguay and Morocco to reach the quarter-finals via a third-place finish. For a detailed look at how the selection process works, see our article "The 2026 World Cup Format: 48 Teams — How It Works in Practice".
The quarter-finals concluded on 9–11 July: France beat Morocco 2–0, Spain defeated Belgium 2–1, England edged Norway 2–1, and Argentina came from behind to beat Switzerland 3–1 in extra time. For a full breakdown of how the expanded bracket shaped these ties, see our article "The 48-Team 2026 World Cup Has Proven It: The Four Best Are in the Semi-Finals".
France: Attack as the Main Weapon
France have gone six matches unbeaten, scoring 16 goals. In the knockout rounds, Les Bleus have yet to concede a single goal. Mbappé leads the Golden Boot race with 8 goals and 3 assists at the tournament. In terms of career knockout-stage World Cup goals, he has 12 — an all-time record among all players in history. Dembélé has added 5 goals, and Olise has contributed 5 assists. Overall, 11 of France's 16 goals at this tournament have been scored in the second half — Deschamps' side know how to wear opponents down.
The key tactical concern for France is injuries. Konaté and Tchouaméni are doubts due to physical issues, while Upamecano and Saliba missed training on the eve of the match with back problems.
Spain: System vs Individuality
Spain have won all five of their matches on the road to the semi-finals, conceding just one goal — to Belgium in the quarter-final. The Spanish side have gone 36 consecutive matches without defeat in regular time — if that run continues, they will draw level with Italy's record of 37. Their top scorer is Oyarzabal with 4 goals. Merino has come off the bench twice and scored decisive goals in two consecutive knockout rounds — a unique achievement in World Cup history. Yamal arrived at the tournament carrying an injury and has yet to show his best form.
Spain's tactical setup (a 4-2-3-1 with Rodri and Zubimendi in a double pivot) is built around ball control and compressing space. The question is whether that structure can withstand the pace of France's counter-attacks through Mbappé and Barcola.
Scenarios
- France win in regular time (Opta probability — 42.1%). If Les Bleus can impose a direct, vertical style of play and exploit the space behind Rodri and Zubimendi, the pace of Mbappé and Barcola becomes the decisive factor. France advance to the final and await the winner of England vs Argentina.
- Spain win in regular time (31.8%). If Rodri holds the structure together and Yamal finally switches on at full power, Spain can capitalise on their pressing superiority. Merino could be the hero from the bench once again. Spain would set a record — 8 consecutive wins in knockout rounds at major tournaments.
- Extra time and a penalty shoot-out (26.1%). The most likely scenario if both defences remain organised. France have not conceded in the knockout rounds; Spain have conceded just once. A shoot-out is a lottery, but Spain have the experience: in 2010 they came through one on their way to the title.
What to Watch Tonight and Tomorrow
The main storyline of the evening is whether Mbappé can score in a World Cup semi-final for the first time in his career (he went goalless in his two previous appearances at this stage). Tomorrow at 22:00 comes England vs Argentina: Messi, with 8 goals, shares the lead in the Golden Boot race with Mbappé — and that duel could be decided right here in Dallas tonight.
Photo: via worldcupwiki.com · Editorial (source)
