Spain vs Belgium: Zero Against Seventeen

The 48-team format of the 2026 World Cup has produced a quarterfinal bracket with no obviously weak matchups — and today's Spain vs Belgium clash (22:00 Kyiv time, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles) is the clearest proof of that. France are already in the semifinals after beating Morocco 2:0. Now the tournament logic poses the question: can anyone stop the Spanish machine, which has not conceded a single goal throughout the entire tournament?

How the 2026 World Cup 48-team format works

For those following the tournament from the middle: the 2026 World Cup format with 48 teams featured 12 groups of 4 nations, where the top two from each group advanced to the knockout stage, along with the eight best third-placed sides — making 32 teams in the Round of 32. It is precisely this expanded bracket that shaped a quarterfinal draw with no obvious underdogs. We previously covered in detail how the knockout stage works after the group phase.

12 groups of 4: who advances to the knockout stage — group stage recap

The group stage concluded on June 28. Of the 48 nations, 32 advanced to the Round of 32: two from each of the 12 groups and the eight best third-placed teams. From there, a straight single-elimination system took over. Eight teams reached the quarterfinals: France, Spain, Belgium, Norway, England, Argentina, Switzerland and Morocco (who were eliminated after a 0:2 defeat to France on July 9).

Spain: six matches — six clean sheets

Spain are the only team in the tournament not to have conceded a single goal. Six consecutive clean sheets — that is over 10 hours of football without a goal against. Their path to the quarterfinals: victories over Saudi Arabia (4:0), Uruguay (1:0) and Austria (3:0) in the group stage, then Austria again (3:0) in the Round of 32 and Portugal (1:0) in the Round of 16 — with Merino's goal in the 91st minute. By xG metrics, La Roja creates an average of around 2.0 xG per match while conceding just 0.4 xG. Rodri, Pedri and Dani Olmo form the tightest midfield block of the tournament.

Belgium: attack is there, defence is a question

Belgium reached this stage through a far more open brand of football: draws with Egypt (1:1) and Iran (0:0) in the group stage, a thrashing of New Zealand (5:1), a win over Senegal in extra time (3:2) and a demolition of the USA (4:1) in the Round of 16. 17 goals scored — but 5 conceded over the last six matches, with only two clean sheets. A serious blow to the defence: Amadou Onana suffered a cruciate ligament rupture in the previous match and is out of the tournament. This is a critical loss in the holding midfield zone, especially against Rodri and company. Thibaut Courtois has made 10 saves across five matches and remains the team's primary insurance policy.

The best 8 third-place rule — how it shaped the bracket

It is precisely thanks to the rule of the eight best third-placed teams that sides such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Paraguay and Ecuador made it into the knockout stage — and that is what made the Round of 32 so unpredictable. The Round of 16 bracket analysis showed that the 48-team format did not dilute the quality — it intensified competition at every stage.

Scenarios

Spain win in regular time (most likely scenario). If Belgium without Onana cannot neutralise Pedri and Olmo between the lines, Spain's positional dominance will translate into one or two goals. Spain advance to the semifinal against France — a match that already looks like a potential final before the final.
Belgium score first and play on the result. De Bruyne and De Ketelaere on the counter-attack are capable of stretching the Spanish defensive block. If the score becomes 1:0 in Belgium's favour, La Roja will find themselves in the unfamiliar role of the chasing team — and that will open up space for Belgian counter-attacks.
Draw after 90 minutes and a penalty shootout. Courtois in goal and Belgian defensive discipline could take the match to extra time. In a shootout, both teams have experience — but Spain have not lost a single match at this tournament.

Meanwhile, it is already known: in the second quarterfinal pair, Norway will face England (July 12, 00:00 Kyiv time) and Argentina will take on Switzerland (July 12, 04:00). Declan Rice has missed two training sessions due to an infection and is a doubt for the match against Norway — a separate subplot heading into the weekend.

Tonight's central question is simple and clear: can Belgium become the first team at this tournament to score against Spain? If not — the Red Devils head home, and Spain continue the most dominant clean-sheet run in the modern history of the World Cup. Tomorrow, keep an eye on Declan Rice's condition ahead of Norway vs England: his presence or absence will significantly alter the tactical picture of that contest.

Photo: GMA News · Editorial (source)