The 2026 World Cup 48-team format has already done its work in the group stage — and now the tournament enters its hottest phase. WC 2026 Format: 48 Teams — How It Works in Practice gave us 32 playoff participants, and today, July 5, two quarterfinal spots are on the line. Brazil faces Norway at MetLife Stadium in New York (23:00 Kyiv time), while Mexico hosts England at the legendary Estadio Azteca in Mexico City (03:00 on the night of July 6, Kyiv time). The winners of these ties will face each other in the quarterfinals — the bracket is already set.
How the 48-Team Format Works at WC 2026
A quick recap of the key mechanics: 48 national teams were divided into 12 groups of four. The top two teams from each group, plus the eight best third-placed sides, advanced to the Round of 32 — 32 teams in total. After the Round of 32, 16 teams remained, and they are now playing the Round of 16. This extra round is the main structural innovation of the expanded World Cup. For more detail on the bracket mechanics, see Round of 16 at WC 2026: The 48-Team Format Produced a Bracket With No Weak Ties.
12 Groups of 4: Who Advances to the Playoffs — Group Stage Summary
Brazil went through the group stage unbeaten and topped Group C. In the Round of 32 they knocked out Japan in a dramatic match — 2:1, with Martinelli's decisive goal coming in stoppage time. Overall, Brazil have gone seven matches without a defeat, winning six of them. Vinícius Júnior has eight goal contributions across the last two World Cups, including five at this tournament.
Norway are the biggest surprise of this World Cup. The team won a knockout match at a World Cup for the first time in their history, beating Ivory Coast 2:1 thanks to Haaland's goal in the 86th minute. Erling Haaland has scored in each of his last 13 consecutive official matches for the national team — 25 goals in that run, including five at this World Cup (he missed the match against France). At the same time, Norway have conceded in every match of the tournament — 8 goals in four games.
Mexico are the only team to have won all four of their matches without conceding a single goal. The hosts knocked out Ecuador 2:0 in the Round of 32 and won a knockout match on home soil for the first time since 1986. At the Estadio Azteca, Mexico have lost only twice in 89 official matches and have gone unbeaten in their last 22 games at that stadium. England advanced to the Round of 16 by beating DR Congo 2:1, with Harry Kane saving the team with two late goals. Tuchel's side looks inconsistent: the Three Lions have conceded first in each of their last six knockout matches at major tournaments.
The Rule of the 8 Best Third-Placed Teams
The key subplot of the group stage at this World Cup was the battle for the eight best third-place spots. This very mechanism, described in WC 2026: 48-Team Format — How the Playoff Works After the Groups, gave a ticket to the Round of 32 to teams such as Paraguay (who sensationally knocked out Germany 4:3 on penalties) and Cape Verde. Paraguay have since been eliminated — France won 1:0 in the Round of 16. But the very fact that these teams reached the knockout stage confirms that the expanded format genuinely gives second-tier nations a chance.
Scenarios
Scenario 1 — Brazil in control, but not without risk. Opta analysts give Brazil a 67.4% chance of reaching the quarterfinals. However, Norway have never lost to Brazil in four previous meetings (2 wins, 2 draws), and Haaland is in form. If Norway score first, the match could go either way. Brazil average 15 shots per game, but the quality of those shots (xG/shot = 0.16) is above the tournament average.
Scenario 2 — Mexico uses the Azteca fortress. If El Tri keep their clean-sheet run going and score first, the pressure of 80,000 fans and the altitude will turn the Estadio Azteca into a genuine hell for England. Both teams have conceded 32 shots across the tournament, so the match is likely to be low-scoring. A draw after 90 minutes is a real possibility, leading to extra time or a penalty shootout.
Scenario 3 — England through set pieces. If Tuchel relies on set pieces and counter-attacks, Kane (5 goals in the tournament) could prove to be the decisive factor. But for that to happen, the Three Lions must avoid early defensive errors — their traditional Achilles' heel in knockout football.
What to watch tonight: in the Brazil vs Norway match, keep an eye on whether Haaland can extend his scoring streak and how Ancelotti will address the defensive wide areas. In Mexico vs England, the opening goal will be key — statistics show that the team that scores first at the Azteca holds a significant advantage. Tomorrow, two more Round of 16 matches follow: Portugal vs Spain and USA vs Belgium.
See also: Argentina Survived Cape Verde's Miracle, Egypt Advanced on Penalties: The Night in Review…
Photo: International Olympic Committee · Editorial (source)
