The 2026 World Cup format with 48 teams has already proven its unpredictability: the Round of 32 delivered penalty shootouts, upsets and records — and now 16 national teams are fighting for places in the quarterfinals. Today, July 4, the Round of 16 kicks off with two matches that set the tone for the entire round. The bracket shaped by the new format — featuring 12 groups and the best eight third-place sides rule — has left no "technical" matchup in sight.
How the 48-team format works at WC-2026
WC-2026 is the first World Cup in history to feature 48 teams. All participants were divided into 12 groups of four. The top two sides from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advanced to the Round of 32 — meaning 32 of the 48 teams reached the knockout stage. The tournament consists of 104 matches in total and will last 39 days — from June 11 to July 19. For more details on how the format works, see the article "WC-2026 Format: 48 Teams — How It Works in Practice".
12 groups of 4: who advanced to the knockout stage
The Round of 32 ran from June 28 to July 4. Among the most notable results: Paraguay knocked out Germany on penalties (1:1, 4:3 pens.), Morocco eliminated the Netherlands (1:1, 3:2 pens.), Egypt beat Australia (1:1, 4:2 pens.). Argentina edged Cape Verde only in extra time (3:2), while Colombia narrowly defeated Ghana (1:0, goal by John Arias). France demolished Sweden 3:0 and arrived at the Round of 16 with 13 goals in 4 matches — the best tally at the tournament. All three host nations — the USA, Canada and Mexico — progressed to the Round of 16.
The confirmed Round of 16 matchups: Paraguay – France, Canada – Morocco, Portugal – Spain, USA – Belgium, Brazil – Norway, Mexico – England, Argentina – Egypt, Switzerland – Colombia. To find out how the 48-team WC-2026 format produced the Spain–Portugal pairing, read the article "Spain vs Portugal in the Round of 16: How the 48-Team WC-2026 Format Created This Matchup".
Scenarios
Canada – Morocco (today, 20:00 Kyiv time, Houston). Morocco arrives at the match unbeaten in the tournament — the Atlas Lions are looking to extend their unbeaten run in regular time to 34 matches. Ismail Saibari, freshly signed by Bayern Munich, scored in all three group-stage matches and converted the decisive penalty against the Netherlands. Canada, meanwhile, is making history: appearing in the Round of 16 for the first time, Jonathan David has 3 goals and 7 shots on target. Scenario 1: Morocco controls the game through pressing and wins in regular time — advancing to the quarterfinals against the winner of Paraguay–France. Scenario 2: Canada holds firm through organized defending, the match goes to extra time or penalties — giving the hosts a real chance of a major upset.
Paraguay – France (night of July 5, 00:00 Kyiv time, Philadelphia). France are the clear favorites: 10 wins in their last 11 official matches, 13 goals at the tournament, Mbappé (6 goals) and Dembélé (4 goals + 5 assists from Olise). Paraguay are the most unlikely side left in the Round of 16: fewest shots (30), fewest goals (3) and the lowest average possession (31.2%) among the remaining teams. Yet La Albirroja have kept two clean sheets after their opening 1:4 loss to the USA. Scenario: France wins, but Paraguay can make life difficult through a low block and counter-attacks — the only question is how many goals they concede.
The big one on the horizon — Portugal vs Spain (July 6, 22:00 Kyiv time). The most high-profile matchup of the round: both sides came through the Round of 32 without major trouble (Spain 3:0 vs Austria, Portugal 2:1 vs Croatia). The winner of this Iberian derby is a potential favorite on their side of the bracket all the way to the final.
The best eight third-place rule — how it shaped the bracket
It is precisely the best eight third-place rule that made the WC-2026 group stage so tense right up to the final whistle. Paraguay advanced as third in Group D — and now face France in the Round of 16. This is a vivid illustration of how the new 2026 World Cup format changes the tournament's logic: "third place" no longer means elimination. For more on the mechanics of the post-group knockout stage, see the article "WC-2026: 48-Team Format — How the Knockout Stage Works After the Groups".
Top scorers race: Messi leads with 7 goals in 4 matches, Mbappé has 6, Haaland (Norway) — 5 goals in 3 matches. Norway face Brazil on July 5 — Haaland could draw level with Mbappé in a single game.
What to watch tonight
The two matches on July 4–5 set the tone for the entire Round of 16: can Canada stop Morocco's pressing machine — and can Paraguay spoil France's party? Tomorrow, Brazil–Norway and Mexico–England will be added to the mix — four matches in 48 hours, and not one of them looks like a stroll for the favorite.
