The 48-team format of the 2026 World Cup has already shown its ruthless logic: following Brazil's sensational elimination and the Mexico vs England thriller, the tournament is entering its hottest phase. Today, July 6, two Round of 16 matches are on the line, determining the lower half of the quarterfinal bracket.
How the 48-team format works at the 2026 World Cup
A quick recap of the tournament structure for context: 48 teams are divided into 12 groups of 4. The top two from each group advance, plus the eight best third-placed teams — 32 teams in total enter the Round of 32. From there it's a classic knockout format all the way to the final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. That's why every match from the Round of 16 onward is already a must-win.
12 groups of 4: who advances to the playoffs
The group stage concluded on June 27. All 32 participants in the Round of 32 have been determined. The tournament is now in the Round of 16 phase. Six of the eight ties have already been played: Morocco thrashed Canada 3:0, France beat Paraguay 1:0, Norway sensationally knocked out Brazil 2:1, and England won a thriller against Mexico 3:2. Tonight it's the turn of the last two ties.
Spain vs Portugal: an Iberian derby with an open ending
At 10:00 PM Kyiv time, Spain and Portugal meet at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. Spain went through the group stage and the Round of 32 without conceding a single goal — a 3:0 win over Austria in the Round of 32 confirmed their status as the most cohesive team in the tournament. Mikel Oyarzabal has 4 goals, and Lamine Yamal is a constant threat from the right flank. Portugal, by contrast, had a tougher ride: two draws in the group stage, then a 2:1 win over Croatia thanks to Gonçalo Ramos's goal in stoppage time. Ronaldo scored his first goal in the knockout rounds, but the team's overall play remained inconsistent.
Form statistics favor Spain: the Opta model gives them a 49.2% chance of winning in regular time, Portugal 25.6%, and a draw 25.2%. Five previous meetings at major tournaments produced just one win for each side and three draws — meaning balance is baked into the DNA of this rivalry. The winner will face the winner of the USA vs Belgium tie in the quarterfinals on July 10 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
USA vs Belgium: a controversial backdrop and an open contest
At 3:00 AM on the night of July 7 (Kyiv time), the USA and Belgium play in Seattle. The match has gained extra edge: FIFA made the unusual decision to lift the automatic suspension of Folarin Balogun, who received a red card in the Round of 32 against Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Belgian federation has already demanded an explanation from FIFA. Opta rates the USA's chances of winning in regular time at 37.2%, Belgium's at 36.5%, with a draw at 26.3% — essentially a coin flip.
Scenarios
- Spain beat Portugal in regular time — the most likely scenario based on current form. Spain advance to the quarterfinals and await the winner of USA vs Belgium. Portugal exit the tournament, and Ronaldo says goodbye to the World Cup without reaching the last eight.
- Draw after 90 minutes — extra time and a penalty shootout — a very realistic outcome given the five previous derbies. In this scenario, psychology and penalty-taking quality will be decisive: Spain have not faced a shootout in this tournament, and neither have Portugal.
- USA vs Belgium: the Americans go through — if Balogun plays and proves effective, it will strengthen the hosts' position. A US win would mean a quarterfinal against Spain or Portugal at the home SoFi Stadium — the most favorable scenario for the American audience.
The rule of the 8 best third-placed teams
Although the battle for the eight best third-placed spots ended with the group stage, it was precisely this mechanism that shaped the current bracket. The 48-team format of the 2026 World Cup allowed teams that finished third in their group but posted the best statistics among all twelve third-placed sides to advance to the playoffs — that is how Paraguay and Egypt, among others, made it to the Round of 32. This fundamentally distinguishes the current World Cup from previous formats and explains why even a third-place finish in the group did not automatically mean elimination.
Tonight's matches will close out the Round of 16 and finalize the quarterfinal bracket. Watch Spain vs Portugal as a litmus test: if Spain advance without extra time, it's a signal that they are a genuine contender for the trophy. A detailed breakdown of how the 48-team format of the 2026 World Cup produced this tie is available in a separate article.
See also: Argentina survived Cape Verde's miracle, Egypt advanced on penalties: the night of…
Photo: Elizabeth Melimopoulos · Editorial (source)
