Today, June 11, football finally takes over the airwaves. After months of anticipation, draws, and predictions, the 2026 FIFA World Cup blows its first whistle — and immediately poses the central question to fans: which of the 48 participants will take the first step toward the final in New York on July 19? The tournament picture is still as blank as a sheet of paper, but today's first results will begin to fill it in.
A Format That Changes Everything
Before analyzing specific groups, it's worth grasping the scale of the changes. For the first time in history, 48 teams compete at a World Cup, split into 12 groups of four. The top two from each group advance automatically, but there is a third path: the eight best third-place finishers across all groups also qualify for the Round of 32. This means that even a loss in the opening match is not a death sentence. Every point, every goal in the goal difference column carries weight from the very first round, because those fine margins may ultimately decide whose third-place finish turns out to be a "lucky" one.
Group A: Mexico Opens the Tournament at Home
The tournament's opening match is Mexico vs. South Africa at the legendary Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. The hosts take the field with an obvious advantage: a FIFA ranking of 14th against their opponent's 60th, plus the powerful backing of the home crowd. Analysts unanimously consider El Tri the favorites in the opener, though they caution that South Africa is capable of making life difficult. For Mexico, three points in the first round are not merely a desirable outcome — they are the foundation of the entire group-stage campaign: next up are the Republic of Korea (June 18) and Czechia (June 24).
Simultaneously, on the same evening in Guadalajara, the Republic of Korea and Czechia will face off. This clash already looks like a battle for second place in the group — both sides understand that beating Mexico in the head-to-head will be tough, so the start must be as strong as possible. A draw between them will keep the suspense alive until the final round; a win for either side will immediately establish a clear pecking order.
Tournament Favorites: Where to Look for Trophy Contenders
While the tables are still empty, it is worth outlining the broader context. According to bookmakers and analytical models, Spain and France are joint favorites to win the tournament. France in Group I looks like the undisputed leader: Kylian Mbappé, Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembélé, and a squad depth that allows Didier Deschamps to rotate without any drop in quality. France's opening match — against Senegal on June 16 — is already being called one of the most dangerous starts for a favorite: the Teranga Lions, featuring Sadio Mané and Kalidou Koulibaly, are capable of troubling anyone.
Norway in the same Group I is a story unto itself. The national team returns to the World Cup for the first time since 1998, and they do so with Erling Haaland in their ranks — one of the most dangerous strikers on the planet. If the Norwegians pick up a positive result against Senegal in the second round, they will have a very realistic shot at advancing from the group.
Argentina — the reigning world champions — top Group J and are the undisputed favorites of the quartet. La Albiceleste open their campaign against Algeria on June 16. For Lionel Messi, this is likely his final World Cup — and that adds a special emotional charge to every Argentine match.
Three Scenarios After the Opening Matchday
Scenario 1 — Mexico win, Korea and Czechia share the points. The most likely outcome: El Tri collect three points and lead the group, while Korea and Czechia each have one after their draw. This is the classic situation where the favorite moves ahead and the two chasers keep their chances alive until the final round.
Scenario 2 — Mexico win, Korea or Czechia also win. If one of those sides wins their opening match, they immediately become a genuine contender for second place. In that case, the third round — Czechia vs. Mexico and South Africa vs. Korea — becomes a true group final.
Scenario 3 — A surprise from South Africa. If South Africa stop Mexico (a draw or a win), the entire Group A becomes a wide-open four-way contest. Results like this in the first round most often produce the most dramatic conclusions in the last.
What to Watch Tomorrow
As early as June 12, Group B (Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina in Toronto) and Group D (USA vs. Paraguay in Los Angeles) spring into action. Both hosts — Canada and the United States — kick off at home under the weight of their fans' expectations. For the Americans, the opening match at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood is not just about three points; it is a statement that the tournament hosts are capable of advancing beyond the group stage. Keep an eye on the scoreline and the nature of the play: the first 90 minutes often set the tone for an entire campaign.
